Speech
Climate Change, Aid and Africa
Speech by Gareth Thomas, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for International Development, at the Royal Geographical Society on September 18 2007
18 September 2007
[Thank
you for that kind introduction.]
I think this much is clear to all of us here today: climate change presents our
generation with a challenge like no other. It will affect different people in
very different ways, right across the globe. But it will be the world’s poorest
- who are least responsible for the problem - who will be hardest hit.
And it is Africa, home to may of the world’s poorest, that stands today at yet
another crossroads as a result of climate change. The negative impact of climate
change is ever more certain. And without decisive and collective action to
prepare for these impacts, Africa, in my view, faces an even more uncertain and
potentially very bleak future.
There are two points I want to stress to you today. First, that climate change
is inherently a development challenge. And second that we must now, as an
international community focus much more effort on enabling poor countries, and
in particular African countries, to prepare for the impacts.
The evidence on climate change and Africa
Tony’s (Nyong) presentation reflected that there is a substantial body of evidence on climate change and Africa. Tony mentioned just how severely agriculture and natural ecosystems will be compromised in Africa. And the mountain of evidence is continuing to build. As Tony highlighted:
- By 2020 between 75 – 250 million people in Africa will be facing increased water shortages.
- Research by my department has shown that across large areas of Africa the likelihood of the rainy season failing will increase from one in ten years to one in three years by 2050.
- And that same research showed that many of the severest climate change impacts are expected to occur in the areas of Africa currently with the worst poverty.
Taking Africa as a whole, the IPCC report concludes that food and water are
likely to be severely compromised. In South Africa for example, revenue from
crops are likely to fall as much as 90% by the end of the century, with
small-scale farmers being most severely affected.
These are deeply, deeply alarming figures. I think we need to think about these
figures in human terms? What will we do when people start fighting, not over
ideas or national identities, but over water? What will we do when people start
fleeing their countries, not because of political persecution, but because of
environmental catastrophe?
Climate change: A development issue
Developing countries are exceptionally vulnerable to the effects of climate
change. Widespread poverty means poor people are the most ill-equipped and the
most unprepared for climate stresses and natural disasters. You only need to
look at the millions of poor people who depend on agriculture. In Malawi for
example, the rural sector contributes almost 40% of GDP, and across sub-Saharan
Africa, employs well over 60% of the population.
And what’s particularly galling of course, is that people in Africa, who are
likely to be worst affected by climate change, are those, as I said, least
responsible. In Europe, carbon dioxide emissions for the EU 15 are over 8 tonnes
a head. In the America they are over 20. Yet in Kenya, carbon dioxide emissions
are just one-fifth of a tonne per person.
In short then, climate change will fundamentally undermine the potential of
African countries to grow and to reduce poverty. So how can climate change be
anything other than a development issue?
If we want to achieve the aspirations of the Make Poverty History campaign, or
meet and then sustain the targets of the Millennium Development Goals, we need
to recognise that climate change, aid and Africa are all part of the same basic
challenge.
Responding to the challenge
Now to respond to this challenge, first, it is vital that we reduce global
emissions so that we can avoid continuing dangerous climate change. In the UK,
the Climate Change Bill will mean that by law, we must reduce carbon dioxide
emissions through domestic and international action by some 60% by 2050 and
26-32% by 2020, against a 1990 baseline.
But it is also vital that we think about the international situation and
recognise it’s vital to reduce international emissions. So we must agree a
global and comprehensive post-2012 agreement.
We want the UN meeting in Bali this December to launch a process for achieving
such a deal by the end of 2009. And we want that to have targets that are not
only ambitious but also fair and equitable for developing countries in the way
they are shared out. The UK is currently working on all fronts to get agreement
– through the EU, the G8 and international and bilateral negotiations to support
the formal UN process.
It is only through the UN that we can secure the type of binding international
action that is necessary.
Second, we need to prepare for and manage the now unavoidable impacts of climate
change. Thinking about how to minimise the negative impacts of climate change –
‘adaptation’ – needs to be fundamentally integrated, as Tony said, into how
developing country governments do planning, into how they set policies and into
how they spend budgets that they do have available.
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The three key elements: Knowledge, Capacity and Resources
And in order for governments and people to do this effectively, we believe that there are three important things that must be put in place.
First, around the area of knowledge. Governments and people need to know what
the predicted risks are for their country and what solutions do exist. What are
temperature and rainfall patterns likely to be in 50 years hence? What will this
mean for banana growing or coffee production, or for the ability of roads to
withstand floods? And what are the most cost effective ways available to the
country government and the people to prepare for likely changes – should we
invest in better water storage and management, or should we focus on a different
cash crop?
Getting that sort of knowledge of course requires robust research and data.
That’s a huge challenge in itself. For example, the density of weather watch
stations in Africa is eight times lower than the minimum recommended by the
World Meteorological Organisation, and reporting rates are the lowest in the
world!
The second issue is the capacity of poor people and governments to adapt to
climate change – we need to make sure that’s strengthened. People who are
well-off are ultimately more able to respond to climate impacts than poorer
people. We need to build on good development practice. Aid spent on
strengthening health systems, better roads, schools and improved housing will
all mean that people are much less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
And, of course, investing in measures like Disaster Risk Reduction saves lives
and is hugely cost-effective. For example, just over $3 billion spent on flood
control in China between 1960-2000 is estimated to have averted losses for the
Chinese economy of some $12 billion (never mind the lives saved and the trauma
for individuals and for families that’s been prevented)!
Thirdly, we need to ensure sufficient financing and resources are available to
help people and governments in developing countries to adapt. The costs of
adaptation are uncertain but without debate they’re going to be considerable.
The estimates that are available put the costs to developing countries in the
range of tens of billions of dollars per annum. The World Bank, for example, has
produced a rough estimate in the range of some $10 - $40 billion per year, of
which they say about a third will be associated with public finance. I think
we’re going to see a figure on the high end of that World Bank estimate.
We now need to think about how best to use existing resources and how to find
new, innovative sources of funds - not only public and private and national but
international sources - to support the rising costs ‘of doing development’ in a
changing climate.
Tackling climate change: A DFID priority
So what are we doing to support this?
Tackling climate change is a priority for the Government here. It is a priority
for DFID. No longer can any development organisation simply carry on with
business as usual.
DFID is now gearing up to respond to the challenge and we are changing the way
we do development work – right across our processes, across our programmes,
across our structures and through the alliances that we make.
We are working in the EU and UN to ensure that adaptation is addressed alongside
the post-Kyoto deal, so that by 2009 we have agreement on who will do what:
agreement by all countries to think about climate risks when they plan for the
future; and agreement by developed countries and international organisations to
support the poorest and most vulnerable countries in doing this and to invest in
and share knowledge.
Good research does matter hugely and can improve the capacity of developing
countries to adapt. We are spending £24 million over five years in the
Climate
Change Adaptation in Africa Programme (CCAA). The research will identify
adaptation opportunities in African countries from Morocco to the Cape. Through
early engagement with African governments and regional inter-governmental
organisations we hope this research will be taken seriously by politicians,
communities and businesses. This is research led by Africans and managed by
Africans including the previous speaker (Tony Nyong).
How DFID is helping
We, along with our donor allies, will also be consulting across Asia and Latin
America to identify the needs and priorities for climate adaptation research in
those regions. Research investments of a similar scale to those that we have set
aside for Africa are being envisaged for both continents.
We are providing an additional £5 million to build climate information capacity
in Africa. Together these will help developing countries to identify the climate
risks they face and prepare better for them. In Bangladesh too and India, China
and Kenya we are piloting ways to screen aid projects for climate risks. Again,
another example of us changing the way we work.
In addition, building on the £20 million committed to the United Nations
adaptation funds, the UK pressed the World Bank and Regional Banks to set up the
Clean Energy Investment Framework, which will help investment not only in low
carbon energy but also adaptation. 10% of DFID humanitarian aid will also be set
aside to prepare for and reduce the risk of future disasters. And earlier this
year Gordon Brown announced an £800 million Environmental Transformation Fund -
part of which will be available to pilot new ways of approaching adaptation in
vulnerable countries.
But perhaps most importantly of all, the UK has committed to increase overall
spending on aid to some 0.7% of GDP by 2013. That increase will not only make a
real difference to people’s lives but will also help people become less
vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Half of our poverty reduction
programmes are already focussed on improving basic services, such as health,
such as education and water, that will better prepare people for the future
impacts of climate change. The increase to 0.7% will also mean that DFID will be
one of the largest funders of development research in the world.
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The need for collective action
But if we are to succeed in tackling climate change, it’s not only about what we
can do in the Department for International Development and in the UK but what we
can do in partnership and through collective action. Those of you from civil
society can help us reach those people states can’t, help us to understand
pressures on the ground, and deliver an ambitious and concerted lobbying
strategy targeted at achieving the pro-poor global deal on climate change that
we need.
Many of you – the scientists and researchers here – can tell us what is
happening and help us to respond. I think the scientific community can make a
unique contribution by providing evidence to support action that we take,
finding solutions for adaptation and helping to design the right institutional
response in country. You can help too by building on the growing body of
knowledge on the physical impacts to tell us more about the impacts on people
themselves and what we can do about them; and help us develop the right
technologies to make the correct response.
We can help you in trying to create the right incentives for technology
development to tackle climate change, by supporting research with funds from our
budget, and by helping define what is needed.
I think the private sector will be key. They will inevitably bear most of the
adaptation costs and will ultimately be the implementer for many of the
adaptation solutions. So they have a major role, not only in terms of adapting
to how climate change affects business but also in finding potentially new and
innovative ways of financing adaptation too.
And then there are national governments. They have the key role to play,
particularly in adjusting national policy and funding decisions but also in
raising awareness of climate risks, and generating and communicating climate
information to their people. Governments can also provide the right incentives
within their country to encourage people and businesses to adapt to climate
change, for example through land-use planning and through performance
regulation.
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Time to make a difference
Ultimately, climate change is going to mean fundamental changes for Africa,
fundamental changes for how we manage and prioritise aid.
I welcome the report released by IPCC Working Group today, on which I
congratulate all who were involved. It provides us with substantially more
evidence of the need for change and with two possible visions of the future.
Either an Africa prepared or an Africa in even deeper poverty.
I think the time for talking about climate change is not yet over. We have to
advocate for change. But we do not have the luxury of waiting. We have got to
get out there and start making a difference. We stand ready to play our part in
tackling climate change.
Thank you.
Links
- Africa ‘most affected’ by climate change - Trade and Development Minister welcomes IPCC report findings
- Millennium Development Goal 7: Environment, Water and Sanitation